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Seaport Global analyst Kenneth Zener upgraded PulteGroup (NYSE:PHM) from Sell to Neutral and announced a price forecast of $100.
The analyst writes that his ratings begin with long-term investors’ benchmark relative weighting decisions, analyzing past cycle stock performance by quartiles (cycle time divided by 4).
Historical data suggests that absolute declines are still likely, but the sector’s risk-to-return profile flattens, providing an opportunity for early-cycle positioning with asymmetric returns when the cycle turns, adds the analyst.
The analyst says the sector’s historical decline of 41% over the past 21 cycles, with the upper half of stocks falling 24%, while the …
